Analysis of Variance of Publish MRR Components

In this post we will each of the components that make up Publish MRR: new, reactivation, expansion, contraction, and churn. We’ll collect the data from ChartMogul and import it into this R session.

The data contains weekly MRR components for Publish from October 2017 to October 2019.

Net MRR Movement

Let’s first look at net MRR movement. The plot below shows the net MRR movement for Publish for each week since October 2017. We can see that there was a period of high MRR growth in the beginning of 2018, around the time we offered the Awesome annual plan promotion and introduced the Pro plans. Since then, net MRR has trended downward somewhat.

Now let’s plot the distribution of net MRR.

Churn MRR

Let’s take a look at churn over time.

## geom_smooth() using formula 'y ~ x'

Let’s look at the distribution of weekly churned MRR.

Weekly churned MRR is also roughly gaussian. The 5th quantile is at $16,575, so we can expect churned MRR to be around$16.5k or less around 5% of weeks. The 95th quantile is at $22,777, so we can expect churned MRR to be around$23k or higher around 5% of weeks.